ON MEXICO'S ECOLOGICAL PROBLEM*

By Eliézer Tijerina.

Professor

Department of Economics, Political Economy Area, and Graduate Program in Social Studies, Social Economy Area.

Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-lztapalapa

Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, UM-KC.

September 26, 2002.

I. Mexico's ecological problem is very serious.

·    During the last hundred years an estimated 20 million hectares (some 50 million acres) of forests and rain forests have been lost, equivalent to 50% of the current estimated total surface of forests and rain forests (40 million hectares or about 100 million acres). This loss has gained momentum, with an estimated average of 673 thousand hectares (over a million acres) lost yearly during the 1989-1992 period.

·    From 1990 to 1996, 1,328,081 hectares (3,281,688 acres) were lost to forest fires.

·    Over 90% of the rain forests have been destroyed.

·    In urban areas the lack of green areas can be illustrated with the case of Mexico City, which counts with 3.94 m2 (42.41 square feet) per inhabitant, when the World Health Organization (WHO) has stipulated a minimum 9 m2 (96.8 square feet) per inhabitant.

·    In the Valle de Mexico 99% of the lakes have dried up.

·    The Lacandon rain forest has lost 700 thousand hectares (around 1 million 700 thousand acres) in 15 years.

·    Apart from the main urban areas of the country, there are also ecological problems in areas such as the petroleum and industrial-port region in the Gulf of Mexico; the northern border area, particularly Tijuana and Juarez; Minatitlan-Coatzacoalcos,  Queretaro, Tampico-Altamira, San Martin Texmelucan, Piedras Negras, the area of Tula-Vito-Apasco and the industrial corridor of the Bajio region; the SEMARNAP has identified 31 hydrological basins with serious problems, seven critical areas and two industrial ports, etc.

The above information about the seriousness of Mexico's ecological problem is confirmed by the accounts of the damage to the environment, added to official estimates from recent years. In the next Table we can see that in the1985-1998 period the total cost of the environmental destruction Mexico rose steeply to cover 10 to 14% of the GDP . This means that, during the period of globalization and economic opening, the actual value added growth in Mexico has been negative. The GDP percentage of the estimated cost of the ecological destruction surpasses by far the long-term real growth (that can be considered as the potential growth) of the Mexican economy, estimated in a little over 4% annually.  Under these terms, if the costs of the natural resources that were used to calculate the GDP had been adequately registered, the real growth of the Mexican GDP would reflect the truth, with an annual decline of 6 to 10%.

This estimation of the costs of ecological destruction is within a higher range than those estimated for the USA and Europe. For these areas the range is within 2 and 12% of the GDP (PNUD, 1997).

Table 1

Cost of the Ecological Destruction in Mexico 1985-1999.

(Thousands of current pesos and as a percentage of the GDP)

Source: For 1985-92, INEGI, Sistema de Cuentas Económicas y Ecológicas de México (System of Economic and Ecological Accounts for Mexico), Mexico, 1996; for the rest of the years, the document published by INEGI in 2000.

There have been changes in the legal and regulatory framework, in response to public acknowledgement of the seriousness of the national ecological problem. An important change came with the Ley General de Equilibrio Ecológico y Protección al Ambiente (General Law of Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection, or LGEEPA), as well as with the environmental regulations for industries and ecological reserves. In this field, the Procuraduría Federal de Protección al Ambiente (Federal Bureau for Environmental Protection, or PROFEPA) performs environmental audits to induce voluntary compliance with environmental regulations. In this sense, also, clean industry certificates are issued to the companies who voluntarily comply with ecological protection standards. On the other hand, through the International Standard ISO-14000 certification, the economic opening has stimulated a more active participation in the development of anti-pollution programs in industries, due to the demands of great state-controlled enterprises such as PEMEX and the Mexico City Public Transport System, amongst others, where the lack of certification of these standards undermines their commercial aperture, as well as the demand of services on the part of the mentioned industries.

Similarly, the reforms to the Mexico City penal code establish sanctions for those who damage the environment, with "ecocide" considered as a serious offence.

A fundamental step for the development of better diagnoses and programs on pollution would be to issue more information on the emission and the sources of pollution. This would also help to create more interest and facilitate private compromises, reducing transaction costs and impelling legal changes to determine rights of ownership.

Based upon the above, we can conclude that even though some measures have been taken, they have been scarce and ineffective. The ecological deterioration in Mexico continues, up to the point where, in relation to the real growth of the GDP from 1985 to 1998 the registered rates were very high, characteristic of a true economic miracle (over 10% annually); only they were negative, because we are talking about true ecological depredation.